Investment in real estate is about to touch seven years high with Rs 53,000 cr
Real Estate Sector
At the end of 2015, the investment into real estate sector is ready to close with $ 8 billion or Rs 53,000 crore and it highest among last seven years. However; most of the money has come from borrowings as well as private equity (PE) route through NCD (non-convertible debentures).
While looking to size of the inflows you might get surprised as it is not in good shape nor systematic. From past few years, the residential space has been under pressure whereas; the pieces of commercial properties have also done the same reasonably. But its less than 5th of the PE funds and it has find its way to the commercial real estate, on the other side the bulk is flowing into residential ventures. According to experts if real estate developers have not dropped prices than all credit goes to investors backing. As per the estimation of Cushman and Wakefield, about $ 2.8 billion or Rs 18,700 crore had been find a way in real estate market through private equity players till the end of Q3, 2015. While adding to that estimates $ 4.5 billion, or Rs 30,500 crore, of NCDs the tally is already up by the 74 percent with Rs 17,600 crore.
The investments are not materialized, whereas; real estate developers can drop their prices to monetize inventory at the point of time when demand is decreasing. However; there are large group of real estate builders which are holding on the inventory and refusing to pay back to their lenders. According to reports of CRISIL the debt obligations on real estate market is Rs 30,000 crore. On the other side the cost of alternative funding has jumped in past one year as real estate developers strapped for cash and for NCDs the internal rate of return are 20 percent whereas; in 2012 there were no were virtually comparable issuances. If you are expecting higher return on PEs, so it will also increase the refinancing risk for the realtors for long terms, as per reports of CRISIL. It is hard to see that how real estate builders going to refinance the about what they have borrowed through NCDs as banks were not financing to this sectors.
However; still builders are not into much trouble, as Vikas Oberoi, MD and Chairman of Oberoi Realty, points out that its seems that there are no shortage of money because real estate developers are backed by different ventures. Whereas; the financial schemes which was offered by the real estate developers can be considered to be in the nature of a discount as real estate builders have managed to sell the apartments and for that they have reduced the size of apartments. There are many investors who are big game player and now they are betting on the real estate market. From GIC (Government of Singapore Investment Corporation) to Blackstone and Warburg Pincus to Goldman Sachs, they are picking up stakes in different residential and commercial projects at the level of the enterprise. CRISIL, one of the major rating agency estimates that for a clutch of 25 companies; in next five to six years the payout to PE funds could be Rs 85,000 crore and it is nominal return with 20 percent. According to Samantak Das, Director of research at Knight Frank India the prices may hold for next two years, but in the absence of demand they’re unsustainable.
Apart from that when it comes to domestic funds, so alone they have been a share of more than $ 2 billion into the residential sector in 2015 and it is expected that it is 80 percent of the of structured debt. For real estate developer, structured product means; it ensures they can exit at a pre-determined return. According to Abrol; the risk for investors today is far lower than they were facing in 2008 and due to that most of the time PE players ensure they have the first charge on cash flows.
