Real Estate Sector

At the end of 2015, the investment into real estate sector is ready to close with $ 8 billion or Rs 53,000 crore and it highest among last seven years. However; most of the money has come from borrowings as well as private equity (PE) route through NCD (non-convertible debentures).

While looking to size of the inflows you might get surprised as it is not in good shape nor systematic. From past few years, the residential space has been under pressure whereas; the pieces of commercial properties have also done the same reasonably. But its less than 5^th of the PE funds and it has find its way to the commercial real estate, on the other side the bulk is flowing into residential ventures. According to experts if real estate developers have not dropped prices than all credit goes to investors backing. As per the estimation of Cushman and Wakefield, about $ 2.8 billion or Rs 18,700 crore had been find a way in real estate market through private equity players till the end of Q3, 2015. While adding to that estimates $ 4.5 billion, or Rs 30,500 crore, of NCDs the tally is already up by the 74 percent with Rs 17,600 crore.

The investments are not materialized, whereas; real estate developers can drop their prices to monetize inventory at the point of time when demand is decreasing. However; there are large group of real estate builders which are holding on the inventory and refusing to pay back to their lenders. According to reports of CRISIL the debt obligations on real estate market is Rs 30,000 crore. On the other side the cost of alternative funding has jumped in past one year as real estate developers strapped for cash and for NCDs the internal rate of return are 20 percent whereas; in 2012 there were no were virtually comparable issuances. If you are expecting higher return on PEs, so it will also increase the refinancing risk for the realtors for long terms, as per reports of CRISIL. It is hard to see that how real estate builders going to refinance the about what they have borrowed through NCDs as banks were not financing to this sectors.

However; still builders are not into much trouble, as Vikas Oberoi, MD and Chairman of Oberoi Realty, points out that its seems that there are no shortage of money because real estate developers are backed by different ventures. Whereas; the financial schemes which was offered by the real estate developers can be considered to be in the nature of a discount as real estate builders have managed to sell the apartments and for that they have reduced the size of apartments. There are many investors who are big game player and now they are betting on the real estate market. From GIC (Government of Singapore Investment Corporation) to Blackstone and Warburg Pincus to Goldman Sachs, they are picking up stakes in different residential and commercial projects at the level of the enterprise. CRISIL, one of the major rating agency estimates that for a clutch of 25 companies; in next five to six years the payout to PE funds could be Rs 85,000 crore and it is nominal return with 20 percent. According to Samantak Das, Director of research at Knight Frank India the prices may hold for next two years, but in the absence of demand they’re unsustainable.

Apart from that when it comes to domestic funds, so alone they have been a share of more than $ 2 billion into the residential sector in 2015 and it is expected that it is 80 percent of the of structured debt. For real estate developer, structured product means; it ensures they can exit at a pre-determined return. According to Abrol; the risk for investors today is far lower than they were facing in 2008 and due to that most of the time PE players ensure they have the first charge on cash flows.

Real Estate

Now at least there is little cheer for real estate developers because of just concluded festival season, and all credit goes to the lukewarm response of end users and investors. Apart from better property price now key markets such as; Delhi, NCR and Mumbai are witnessing positive response from buyers.

This festive season, which was just ended and was between Navratri and Diwali, accounted more than 60 per cent of all planned property purchase decisions and it was also bulk sales opportunity for real estate developers. However; to attract property buyers most of the real estate developers were offering freebies as well as heavy discounts. We all know that from last three years real estate market was sluggish for developers because most of the buyers were holding their property purchase decision as they were hoping for better price. As per the reports of 99acres.com, in Mumbai the price of property in terms of per square foot saw a insignificant rise between the period of second and third quarter of 2015 (April-June quarter to July-September quarter). However; the rental for commercial property have increased from the September quarter again after little rise in January-March 2015.

As per the statement of Narasimha Jayakumar, Chief Business Officer of 99acres.com, “Currently, real estate market is filled with lucrative offers, heavy discounts and easy payment schemes due to high level of unsold inventory which resulted in buyers to adopt a wait-and-watch approach. Samantak Das, Chief Economist and National Director of Knight Frank India stated that “Stakeholders which are from the supply-side believe that in present situation is much worse in comparison of what it was six month ago. In real estate market stakeholders are pessimistic due to heavy demand in residential sector and because of that they are not forcing for any kind of recovery in next six month. Whereas; the main optimism about the future was driven by the commercial spaces because it is expected that rental value will increases due to robust limited supply and leasing volumes of property”. Apart from that some of the real estate watchers are saying that in eight major cities of country real estate market has been improved by 17 per cent from 57.8 msf (million square feet) in the second quarter of 2015 in comparison of last quarter. According to Pankaj Kapoor, MD, Liases Foras, “A decline in commodity prices is favoring the real estate developers because it bringing down the cost of construction and correcting the property prices”.

CRISIL Report:

CRISIL report stated that demand revival is expected to be marginal and due to that price will also increase. CRISIL analyze the top 25 realtors of country while comparing the 95 per cent of the real estate market’s capitalization to show that still there is debt obligations of Rs. 30,000 crore with high refinancing risk. However; it is expected that demand of commercial and residential properties will be tepid over the medium term. According to Sushmita Majumdar, Crisil Director, “These 25 real estate developers are accounted for more than 50 per cent bank lending in real estate sector and most of them are facing high refinancing risk in the areas like NCR. However; with net exposure of banks it is expected that it will decrease by 5 per cent for the first time in this fiscal year, whereas; banks were used to meet more than 90 per cent of the requirements for real estate developers till last year due to increasing proportion and funding gap. Sale ability of real estate projects has also been declining, especially in North region states.