gold vs property vs shares

Recently, in an interview with CNBC-TV18, Manishi Raychaudhuri of BNP Paribas stated that recent weakness in the prices of property and gold can be the main reason why domestic investors are flocking towards the stock market and it could be bounty for equity investors in the long term.

In present, it’s difficult to make any prediction because market is still uncertain. These days Indian public sector banks like Bank of Baroda and other banks are recording little small increase in non-performing loans (NPLs). Now in India market seems to be volatile as China and government is expecting to act as the backstop for their equities. According to experts, for short term India will continue to outperform because these days investors are appreciating as still it is one of the best markets with a good options and choice of stocks. As an investor we all like to invest in private sector banks because they are able to raise their capital and asset quality, which is very much alive. However; retail clients love to deal exclusively with institutional clients, but if you will analyze the performance of gold and property, so you will understand that they are used to occupy the lion’s share in the asset allocation when it comes to middle class. It means in the developing country like India most of the people are investing their more than half of the saving in real estate and gold. Apart from that now people also prefer to invest in the alternative asset classes and it seems to be pretty relative attractiveness of equities and unattractiveness of the alternative asset classes.

The saving rate of India is 30 to 40 per cent and it is a USD 2 trillion economies out of half comes from financial assets which is about USD 350 billion and if 10 per cent will go to the equities, so it will become the 30 to 40 billion per year. And it will be larger than the FII inflow in country, which India has received ever. These days financial experts are targeting a Sensex on 30,300 by the end of this calendar year and it will approximately 8 to 10 per cent from the present level. However; the appreciation of US dollar would obviously be another tailwind for this sector. There are few commodities such as; oil and gas or energy, and they all are refining the margins. With the performance of NIFTY at last Friday its clear that it was surprising as the entire rise are for short volume as well as momentum support. Nifty is closing in decisive manner and for August month we can expect certainly positive response.

Top three cities to invest

In past three years it has been noticed that property prices increased sharply in most of the major cities in country and Bengaluru, Chennai and Ahmedabad are among top three cities from where one can draw the maximum ROI. While analyzing the property price figures for the duration of Jan to Mar 2015 quarter it is clear that the areas such as; Nungambakkam in Chennai, Silk Board in Bengaluru and Ghatlodiain Ahmedabad witnessed the highest price appreciation, which is the main reason of joy for those who have invested in above mentioned areas. However the analysis is following;

1. Area: Nungambakkam

City: Chennai

Due to latest infrastructure development work and other large projects in favor of Nungambakkam, its only re-development of old projects which led the property price to rise by the value of 8.18 per cent in Nugambakkam in last three months. Retail outlets, Government quarters, hotels and restaurants, are the main attraction of the area however the Nungambakkam is oldest habituated locality in Chennai. Most of the real estate builders have launched their new projects in the region however for some real estate projects construction work is underway, as per the statement of Velmurugan V, a real estate agent from a broker firm.

As Nungambakkam is close to city centre so it is easily connected with rest of the city however; Nungambakkam is mostly housed by the elites of the Chennai, NRIs and HNIs. Here property values in the range of Rs 14, 000 to 18, 600 per sq ft and it makes the Nungambakkam one of the premium areas of city.

2. Area: Silk Board

City : Bengaluru

In past three months the property prices for Silk Board have increased by 10.45 per cent. The main question is that what is working in the favor of this locality? So perfect answer is it’s all about strategic location and connectivity with Outer Ring Road as well as IT areas like; Electronic City, ITPL, and Marathahalli.

Due to being the premium and most busy region in the city Silk Board is famous for arguably being worst traffic spot, but in near future the place is going to witness the several infrastructure up gradation. Everyday millions of people pass through the CBS (Central Silk Board) junction including both public and private transport which is the main reason for long traffic jams.

However the construction work for Elevated Expressway is underway and it is expected that this Expressway will reduce the travel time between Electronic City and Silk Board Junction and it will also help the nearby areas. Current property rates in the area are around Rs 2, 600 to 3, 500 per sq ft.

3. Area: Ghatlodia 

City: Ahmedabad

Ahmedabad is not the metro city, but still the localities of Ahmedabad are able to provide good return on property investment as here few localities are giving strong competition to the premium areas of metro cities and for that the best example is Ghatlodia, as this locality has witnessed more than 8.11 per cent price appreciation in last three months duration.

Here most of the potential customers are the professionals, which are moving in city due to its relaxed lifestyle and affordability, as per the statement of Pragnesh Korat, who is real estate expert in Aakar Estate. The main advantage of Ghatlodia area is that this area is situated near by SG Highway, which directly connects the SP Ring Road through Science City Road. Ghatlodia area shares neighborhoods with some of the most develop areas as well as expensive localities such as; Naranpura and Memnagar. Current property rates in Ghatlodia area are approx. Rs 3, 300 to 4, 100 per sq ft.

Real estate infrastructure at Ghodbunder

Real estate market along the stretch from Thane to the Central Business District of Belapur is on the boil. Price appreciation is the order of the day and hence those who had prudence to invest in the nick of time have every reason to cheer.

Development of physical infrastructure in Ghodbunder Road, Kolshet Road, Airoli, Majiwada, Ghansoli, Vasant Vihar or Vashi to an expanding job market, and from the metro rail to better connectivity to the upcoming commercial markets, the real estate market expects a positive impact in times to come.

This impact is clearly visible in the capital values of the residential areas of Thane, Kalyan, Badlapur, Vashi and other suburbs, indicates data over the last two years, all these areas have reported a rise in capital values in the range of Rs 650-3500 per sq ft, depending upon the location.

Investors have been banking on the numerous upcoming infrastructure projects, one of them being the metro rail network. Deepak M, consultant at Shri Sai Property Consultants, says, “Of late, Thane has been a fast-moving market. Buyers have the benefit of sound living standards and almost half the price it would take to live in Mumbai. Most buyers also foresee property prices going up.” Initially, while it would have taken close to 50 minutes to commute to Mumbai, with the metro, the time taken would be down to 20 minutes. This positively impacts the property markets of Vasant Vihar, Majiwada, Pokhran Road 1 and 2 as well as Ghodbunder Road and Hiranandani Estate.

Shiva Patil, a local realtor in Thane, informs, “Majiwada Junction Flyover cuts across the busiest routes of Thane. Strategically planned, commuters from Mumbai would have easy access to Kalyan. This flyover, already half operational, facilitates to and fro connectivity to Mumbai, Nashik and other areas where most of the economic drivers are.” So, whether you are working in Borivali, Malad or Mulund, the three flyovers planned here, are getting developed in phases and will facilitate travel. By easing connectivity, Majiwada also opens investment options in the region. With capital values slowly picking up, most residential pockets in Thane would see more number of takers.

Real estate sector has another reason for eyeing the general elections results, which is, expecting to make big business from property buyers! It is very clear that property buyers and developers are very anxious about any action taken by the existing government. A general election is the only time which tells whether real estate market will prosperous or remains intact.

 For the coming next few years the next government’s employment and economic strategies will have greater impact on the growth of real estate sector. Since the last two years were not good for the Indian property market, recovery has become very essential. Developers are expecting a positive response post-poll. But so far none of the campaigns found success in defining a comprehensive offer for retrieval of the real estate market.

 The real estate market is the main financer for elections; developers provide funding to politicians for financing their respective campaigns before the polls. This time slump in the housing absorption has negatively affected developers’ liquidity, as a result In order to support elections; many developers are postponing their projects and cutting down on new launches.

Though there is assumption that property prices will raise post elections but election results do not make or break a market, they do affect market opinions.

 Post elections, if the revival is unobstructed, we may see a large number of property buyers re-entering the real estate market. Political uncertainty surely has a noticeable effect on the Indian property market, and it is also not easy to isolate that political uncertainty from larger economic elements like interest rates and job creation. A superior image of infrastructure will help make the market more cheerful and flexible.

 Currently the key aspects to think about Indian real estate are unsold inventory, absorption and interest charges. Irrespective of which party wins, all these aspects will not change overnight post elections. Over the period of time, what will matter most to the real estate market are FDI in housing, REIT legislation’s and the effective execution of Real Estate Bill. The Reserve Bank of India will also have an important role in the post-election situation, whether it reducing interest rates for home buying, or permitting flexibility to bring back endowment schemes, or reorganizing debt for debt-ridden developers.

 Certainly, a new established government will increase businesses and boost investor’s buoyancy. However, at least for a year the real effects of any changes will not get revealed in the economy. A perfect recovery can happen only with the combination of low interest rates, bottomed-out property rates, and a regain in buyer’s confidence. If the upcoming new government is capable of keeping low interest rates and high employment opportunity, it can provide the right platform for a steadier and investment-friendly real estate market.